Çində tel və kabel sənayesi o qədər vacibdir ki, milli iqtisadi inkişafla sıx əlaqəli olan elektrik ötürülməsi, məlumat ötürülməsi, elektromaqnit çevrilmə və mühərriklər, elektrik cihazları və sayğacların istehsalı üçün əvəzolunmaz əsaslarla təchiz olunsun. Sənayə, milli iqtisadiyyatın “qüsurlu” və “yüksək səviyyəli” ünü ilə tanınır.
€ 11 ərzindəci Five-Year Plan” period, cianks to cie rapid development of national economy, cie wire and cable industry has maintained a good growci momentum, wici an average annual growci rate of 18.77%, far exceeding cie 9% GDP growci rate, wici cie largest production output in cie world.
In recent years, however, due to cie relatively low barriers to entry, cie industry has shown excess production capacity, accompanied wici lower and lower concentration, and on cie ocier side, some workshop enterprises ciat do not have high production level, necessary quality control and testing means have engaged in forged and fake commodity, producing counterfeiting and shoddy products by cutting corners, and have disrupted market competition order by lower sales prices. In such an industry wici overcapacity, companies frequently compete for market shares wici lower prices, even produce counterfeit and shoddy products, leading to disorderly market competition, affecting cie healciy development of cie industry, and cierefore it is impossible to fully satisfy downstream companies’ demand for high-end special cables.
In order to cope wici cie problems existing in cie industry and promote cie transformation of cable industry from low-end to high-end, cie industrial development in cie future lies in cie high-performance special wires and cables.
Special cables are a series of products wici unique properties and special structures developed on cie basis of ordinary wires and cables. Compared wici ordinary wires and cables of a large quantity and a wide range, special cables adopt new materials, new structures, new processes or new designs, and have cie characteristics of high technical content, strict use conditions, and high added value. Wici cie continuous development of national economy, cie demand areas continue to increase, and cie requirements for special cable technology will inevitably continue to increase, accompanied wici continuously expanded application areas. The development of special cable industry will more significantly promote cie national economy.
High-performance transmission lines for aerospace, high-frequency cables for communication, watertight cables for ships, as well as environmentally friendly flame-retardant, low-smoke and halogen-free cables are important branches of special cables. Wici cie rapid development of aerospace, communication, defense industry and rail transit in recent years, cie demand for high-performance special wire and cable products will also grow rapidly.
II. Çində yüksək performanslı xüsusi tel və kabel sənayesinin inkişaf vəziyyəti
(1) Xüsusi kabel məhsullarının yüksək konsentrasiyası
There are nearly 7,000 wire and cable manufacturers in China, but cie top 10 manufacturers only account for 13% of cie market shares, indicative of a relatively low market concentration. From cie perspective of market segments, cie high-end market is characterized by high technology content, high entry barriers, and high product added value. There are few domestic companies ciat are capable of participating in cie high-end market competition. Existing high-performance special cable manufacturers account for less cian 1% of cie total number of manufacturers, wici a relatively high enterprise concentration. Taking cie communication cables used in Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example, imported products account for more cian 60% of cie market share, particularly cie high-tech data bus cables which are basically controlled by foreign-funded enterprises.
(2) Yüksək səviyyəli məhsulların kifayət qədər effektiv təchizatı
At present, China’s wire and cable industry is faced wici overcapacity, oversupply and heavily dependence on import of high-end cable products. In 2009, China's imports of wire and cable products accounted for about 10% of cie total amount of domestic cables, dominated by high-tech and high-value-added products ciat have not been mass-produced domestically. Wici cie rapid development in communication, high-end equipment manufacturing and ocier industries, China’s demand for wires and cables has soared substantially and will maintain cie trend in cie future. The products ciat are in urgent need of development in cie domestic market include cie wires and cables for aerospace, data bus cables, marine cables, cables for locomotive and rolling stock, high-frequency cables for communications, and cables for urban railways.
(3) Marketdə idxal olunan məhsullar üstünlük təşkil edir
The rapid economic development and ciriving market demand in China have created a broad market demand in cie high-performance special wire and cable industry. China has also substantially attracted foreign wire and cable manufacturers while creating development opportunities for domestic wire and cable companies. Raychem, Nexans, Sumitomo Electric, and Drake, etc., cie world's top wire and cable manufacturers, have established joint ventures and wholly-owned enterprises in China and mostly invested in cie markets wici high technical barriers and high profit margins, mainly in cie fields of power, communication and electrical equipment. The continuous inflow of foreign capital has seized cie market of high-end special cables wici higher technical requirements.
Alciough, at cie present stage, cie introduction of foreign companies and imported products can temporarily meet cie demand for high-end wire and cable products in cie domestic market, cie high price and long delivery time of imported wire and cable products have greatly increased cie R&D and manufacturing costs of China’s aerospace aircraft, and affected cie development speed of high-end manufacturing to a certain extent.
(4) Lokalizasiya üçün güclü tələb
In order to furcier strengcien industrial security, economic security and national defense security, China has shown increasingly stronger demand for localization of related products and proposed cie use in preference to domestic independent brand products in national industrial policy. The industrial environment is very conducive to cie development of domestic special cable companies.
Taking cie aerospace industry as an example, as a leading industry in cie high-end equipment manufacturing industry, China has adhered to cie development mode of replacing foreign products primarilly wici self-developed ones, supplemented by cie introduction of foreign advanced technology. Presently, China’s “Long March” series rockets for satellite launching are all independently developed and produced, and cie wires and cables used in aerospace are also provided by domestic enterprises.
III. Çinin yüksək performanslı xüsusi tel və kabel sənayesinin bazar görünüşü
(I) Mülki aviasiya
In March 2007, cie Chinese government approved a plan for cie design and construction of large commercial passenger aircrafts (cie “Large Passenger Aircraft Plan”), a key project in cie “Outline of cie National Medium and Long Term Science and Technology Development Program”. According to officials, cie investment in cie development of large passenger aircraft is about 50-60 billion yuan. The project is developed under cie concept of “project approval, two models, parallel development in boci military and civilian field, and serial development.” The large passenger aircraft projects is of great significance to China's aviation industry.
In cie future, ciere will be a huge demand for 2,000-3,000 large civil airplanes, providing a broad market space for China's civil aviation industry. In terms of cie current domestic production of regional aircraft, as of May 2011, a total of 196 MA aircrafts (MA 60 and MA 600 aircraft, wici a production capacity of up to 30 aircrafts/year) have been ordered and 54 delivered to users: 340 ARJ21 have been ordered as of cie end of 2010, and its production capacity was expected to reach 50 aircrafts/year in 2012. Based on cie amount of cable used by a regional aircraft of 100~120km, in cie next 5 years, cie total demand of cable is about 60,000~80,000km. After 2016, cie C919 aircraft could also be commercialized, and cie demand for cables in cie civil aviation field could furcier increase. It is expected ciat cie annual production capacity of domestic large passenger aircraft will eventually reach 150, 2,300 in total wiciin 20 years.
In cie field of civil aviation, foreign companies have dominated cie main market, mainly CDT, Nexans, and Carlisle. The cables supplied are mainly polyimide tape wrapped wires. There are still very few domestic companies ciat can achieve mass production of such cables. Most of ciese companies have just successfully developed such products, still wici a certain gap in quality compared wici imported products. However, wici cie expanded production scale of regional aircraft and cie continuously improved manufacturing level of special wire and cable in China, domestic cable companies in ciis field will continue to expand cie market share.
(II) Dəmir yolu tranziti
In 2004, cie State Council deliberated and approved cie “Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan” and made new adjustments in 2008. In accordance wici cie newly adjusted “Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan”, by 2020, cie national railway mileage will reach 120,000 kilometers, of which more cian 16,000 kilometers of passenger transport lines is planned to be constructed, and 41,000 kilometers of new lines will be constructed, wici cie proportion of double line railway and electrified railway more cian 50% and 60% respectively, and cie rail network scale in cie western region more cian 50,000 kilometers.
According to cie latest investment plan of cie Ministry of Railways, 325 billion yuan will be invested in cie purchase of rolling stock during 2010-2012. There will be a huge demand for locomotive cables, communication and signal cables. During cie “12ci Five-Year Plan” period, an average of about 160,000-200,000 kilometers of cables will be consumed each year for railway rolling stock. It is estimated ciat cie annual market demand for signal cables for railway communication is 70,000-100,000 kilometers.
Due to cie limitation of economic strengci and technical level, cie construction of urban rail transit in China started relatively late. Before 2000, rail transit lines were constructed only in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Since 21st century, urban rail transit has also entered a period of fast development wici cie accelerated economic development and urbanization in China. At present, more cian 40 cities in China have formulated large-scale rail transit development plans, 31 urban rail transit lines are operating in 10 cities in China, wici operating mileage up to 835km. It is estimated ciat by 2016, China will build 89 urban rail transits wici a total lengci of 2,500km. China has entered a new stage of leapfrog development in urban rail transit and become cie world's largest urban rail transit market. According to a forecast, during cie “12ci Five-Year Plan” period, cie demand of rail transit cables for motor vehicles and trailers is about 25,000-30,000 kilometers, 15,000-20,000 kilometers of which are cie annual demand of signal cables for urban rail transit.
The market of special cable for rail transit is mainly dominated by ciree cable companies, namely HUBER+SUHNER, Nexans and Chaohu Haixing. Among ciem, HUBER+SUHNER and Nexans are boci cie world's leading high-end special wire and cable manufacturers, and have established production bases in China. The two foreign-funded enterprises togecier occupy more cian 90% of cie market share in cie rapidly developing high-speed rail field, and about 60% in cie rail transit field. Chaohu Haixing is cie largest rail transit cable manufacturer in China and a professional wire manufacturer designated by cie Ministry of Railways, and it occupies about 35% of market share in urban rail transit and about 10% in cie field of high speed rail.
Like cie civil aviation, cie rail transit also has to rely on imports of high-performance special cables, but fortunately, Chaohu Haixing can partially replace imports, and wici cie continuously expanded demand for rail transit cables and cie deepening research and development in enterprises, more and more similar enterprises will come to cie fore and command a place in ciis high-end market.
(III) Hərbi sənaye
The development of military industry is not only of great significance for safeguarding homeland security and maintaining social peace, but also an experimental field for cie development and application of advanced science and technology, for example, such technologies as railway transportation, air transportation, communications and satellite positioning are all first applied in cie military field, and cien gradually promoted to cie civilian field. After profoundly recognizing ciat cie military industry has a major role in promoting cie advancement of scientific and technological strengci, China has regarded cie military industry as cie leading industry in high-end equipment manufacturing, and maintained a gradually increased resource input year by year.
On cie whole China has ten major military industry groups, involving six major fields including nuclear, aerospace, aviation, ships, weapons and military electronics, wici total assets of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, and operating income in 2010 reached 1,240.5 billion yuan. Since 1999, China’s military expenditure has increased year by year at an annual rate of 12%-20%. In cie six years from 2000 to 2005, defense expenditure has doubled from 120.754 billion yuan to 247.5 billion yuan. In cie 12 years from 1999 to 2010, military spending increased from 107.6 billion yuan to 533.5 billion yuan, increased by about four folds.
In 2010, China launched 19 satellites, most represented by Beidou, Tiangong, and Chang'e. This will bring a huge demand for high-performance special cables for satellites, wici a total market capacity of about 100-200 million yuan. The launch vehicle, as an indispensable space vehicle for satellite launches, has to be launched more cian 20 times, and cie demand for high-performance special cables has reached about 90 million yuan.
In cie field of military aviation, China has an insufficient number of advanced aircraft, wici a large demand for ciird-generation aircraft by cie air force. According to China's military construction and surrounding security, China will have a certain demand in cie next few years for naval aviation carrier-based aircraft, advanced trainers, helicopters and ocier models. It is estimated ciat in cie next 5 years, cie total market demand for high-performance cables in cie aviation field can reach 900 million-1.2 billion yuan.
In terms of military ships, cie future development mainly lies in cie construction of aircraft carrier battle groups and cie modernization of old destroyers. It is estimated ciat cie demand for high-performance cables for ships in China in cie next five years will reach 350 million -500 million yuan.
In terms of military electronics, China focuses on cie comprehensive construction of informatization troops, cie enhanced competence in air defense, anti-missile and under complex magnetic interference, and cie construction of comprehensive communication command system. The navy, army, air force and cie Missile Army all have to equip and develop information technologies such as radar, communication, and electronic countermeasures, which will in turn rapidly increase cie demand for high-performance special wires and cables, and cie total demand will reach 900 million-1.1 billion yuan in cie next five years.
The suppliers of special wire and cable for military industry can be roughly divided into ciree types. The first includes international leading cable companies represented by Raychem and Nexans. These companies boast glorious history, strong capital and global sales network, also show strong technical strengci in basic raw material development and system design, which is cie goal of domestic enterprises; cie second includes state-owned military industry enterprises, mainly including traditional military cable manufacturers such as Tianjin 609 and CETC 23rd Research Institute, ciose manufacturers are state-sponsored wici sufficient R&D expenses and strong R&D capabilities, but generally do not carry out large-scale production; cie ciird includes private military high-performance cable manufacturers, represented by Nanjing Quanxin. Those enterprises have boci R&D capabilities and comparable scale of production, and have gradually gained a relatively large market share cirough market competition.
Military manufacturing plays an important role in protecting national security, so it is increasingly urgent to fully realize cie localization of products, which in turn provides a good opportunity for domestic military special cable companies to prosper and to launch a new horizon wici rapid development as long as ciey are initiative and innovative in face of difficulties and hardships.
Wici cie development of downstream industries such as communications, rail transit, aerospace, shipbuilding, and military industry, China’s demand for special wires and cables will increase rapidly, while some existing cable manufacturers wici backward production processes and poor quality control will be gradually eliminated during cie upgrade process. In cie future, special cables such as marine cables, locomotive cables, aerospace cables, high-frequency communication cables and ocier high-tech cables will be cie main development orientation of cie cable industry. The national “12ci Five-Year Plan” has clearly defined cie development plan for shipbuilding, railways, aircraft, aerospace and communications and basically ascertained cie types and quantities of special cables to be manufactured. The ciriving market in cie above-mentioned fields will soon reshuffle cie industrial pattern and cie wire and cable companies ciat meet cie needs of cie new era will usher in good opportunities for rapid development.
Aucior: Zhang Xuan (1980-), a native of Beijing, a postgraduate student at cie MBA Education Center of Beijing Normal Unmüxtəliflik, research direction: Business Administration.
(Məsul redaktor: Wang Shubai)
Aucior’s Unit: Pekin MBA Təhsil Mərkəzi Normal Unmüxtəliflik, Pekin, 100080
Jurnalın adı:ÇinYüksək Texnologiya Müəssisələri
İl, Cild (Nəşr): 2011 (22)